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Puget Sound Rivers Forecast

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Puget Sound Rivers Forecast

Postby Jakefish » Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:37 pm

Here is a summary by river of WDFW's forecast for 2017. Pretty depressing: http://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/northfalcon/2017/2017_salmon_forecasts_fact_sheet.pdf

Skagit Sockeye seems to be the only positive up my way, but even when the fish are in that fishery can be very tough. I'm surprised the forecast for pinks in the Nooksack is so poor because it had a huge return in 2015, even when other Puget Sound rivers struggled. Here's hoping things are better north of the border.
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Re: Puget Sound Rivers Forecast

Postby fisherman92 » Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:00 am

Pretty sad site to see. It is predictions though and it doesn't mean a whole lot to me since Ive seen them be way off on multiple years. I hope the lower stilly will open this year... I am not against keeping rivers closed to help the populations out due to lack of fish as long as commercial and tribes would be onboard too... then again I don't make a living off of fishing so hard argument to make as always..
Lets hope the outcome is better than the predictions!
If not ill be stocking up on bass gear... haha
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Re: Puget Sound Rivers Forecast

Postby Onmygame » Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:33 am

fisherman92 wrote:Pretty sad site to see. It is predictions though and it doesn't mean a whole lot to me since Ive seen them be way off on multiple years. I hope the lower stilly will open this year... I am not against keeping rivers closed to help the populations out due to lack of fish as long as commercial and tribes would be onboard too... then again I don't make a living off of fishing so hard argument to make as always..
Lets hope the outcome is better than the predictions!
If not ill be stocking up on bass gear... haha



Yeah, there is hope.. as they do tend to err on the side of caution when predicting runs.

Look at this past year's coho forecast - they were off a good bit with runs bigger than expected...though still not great.

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Re: Puget Sound Rivers Forecast

Postby fisherman92 » Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:37 am

Yeah I had a great year last year for coho despite the forecasts. You just gotta fish multiple river systems till you find a good section holding fish. Persistence is difficult though when you have limited openings and more travel time.
We will see though.
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Re: Puget Sound Rivers Forecast

Postby riverhunter » Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:20 pm

I don't believe them anymore. Especially with what happened last year. They called for record low coho returns and the fish showed upon bigger numbers that they anticipated. I won't believe its a small pink run until I see the actual numbers in the rivers for myself
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Re: Puget Sound Rivers Forecast

Postby BARCHASER » Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:44 pm

Looks like the WDFW Coho numbers are screwed up. Todays Coho barchart shows a forecast of 450,000 Coho and yet the 2/28 forecast news release (see below) sez 559,000. Kind of a big difference if I'm reading it right, only 100,000 fish. Anyway, I sent them an email asking which one is right.

I am surprised about the Pink forecast. Pinks are the go to tribal commercial fish and if the Pink run is low that will prob mean the tribes will want more Coho. Expect fireworks.



"Coho returns to several Puget Sound-area rivers, such as the Skagit and Stillaguamish, are projected to be extremely low, which will limit opportunities for salmon fishing overall. The total forecast of 559,000 Puget Sound coho is down about 6 percent from the 10-year average, although it represents an increase from last year's forecast."
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Re: Puget Sound Rivers Forecast

Postby Jakefish » Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:35 pm

There are additional documents on the WDFW website detailing the run estimates by river and species. The Nooksack is actually projected to get slightly more pinks than the Skagit, which is really something because the Skagit is a much bigger river. I expect the real fireworks this year are going to be on the Skagit (again) as coho and pinks are both forecast to be exceptionally low for that river (although again coho not as bad as last year's forecast). As far as I know, the tribes can't really target coho and not pinks or vice-versa until the pink run is pretty much done, and if they can't be selective that would really limit what if any fisheries can take place. Looks like I may have to drive to the Snohomish again.
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Re: Puget Sound Rivers Forecast

Postby fisherman92 » Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:48 pm

Well the tribes can say they are "targeting" certain species at certain times, but we all know nets are not selective. So they'll basically catch what they want (any fish that comes across their nets).
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