Notes from NOF Forecast Meeting

[TomD]

Couldn't figure out a better place for this post, so I'll put it here and let Mike or Aaron move it if necessary...

I went to the NOF Forecast meeting in Olympia yesterday. Here's my thoughts after pondering things overnight. Going from memory rather than notes to see what I remember as important and give the Department a chance to see if I heard the message right...

The Coast and Columbia - looking pretty good for chinook, not so great for coho - expect chinook similar to last year including the June mark selective fishery - maybe less coho in the quota for this year

Puget Sound - I focus more there since I mainly fish there...

Chinook - similar to last year, actually toward the upper range of normal returns - increased fishing in Canada, OR and Cali may impact inside fisheries a little (they fished less last year, which gave us more "impacts" to use)

Big news is the Green River - it hasn't made escapement in the last couple of years, and there may be NO chinook directed fishery in Elliott Bay this year - also may impact crafting fisheries for coho and pink

Coho - better than last year, but some of the south sound areas are still really in trouble for wild coho - constraining stock as usual is Canada Thompson river, which limits Straits and San Juans - seasons similar to 2010

Sockeye - no chance for LW, probably a good chance for Baker Lake

Chum - Just under 1M expected back, so a decent run but not the size of some recent whopper runs

Pinks - As reported earlier - approx 6M of the little buggers coming back to the Sound (17M to the Fraser) - Of note is that the Green River forecast now is bigger (2.2M) than the Snohomish River (1.3M) - so probably more pink fishing in Area 10 by both sports and commercials

Challenge #1 will be crafting fisheries that allow both boat and bank access to Green River pinks without adding many chinook impacts - expect NOF to work this issue

Challenge #2 will be minimizing gear conflicts between sport and commercial fishers in Area 10 - maybe a commercial zone like in Area 8.2 or something - but in any case, sport fishers are going to have to be alert and be smart about fishing near commercial guys who don't have the same manueverability with their gear - expect NOF to work this too

Department Status and Budget - towards the end of the morning Director Anderson spoke to the group (and he took the time to be with us for the whole morning) - The Department has had large budget cuts in the last biennium and is expecting more for 2011-2013 in what they get from the General Fund - like $40M last time and another $29M this time - Director Anderson referrred to this as a bad situation with no good choices, but if they don't have the money, they can't spend it, even on something that is a good deal or returns more to the state than it costs. Cuts could include hatchery operations, fish mgmt (crafting and monitoring fisheries), etc. The Department is pursuing alternative funding measures like increased fees and the parking pass that's in the press to offset the reductions and keep things at the reduced level they currently are. Those all need Legislative action to do...

My opinion - Phil and the Commission have been supportive of science based mgmt and recreational fishing and we should continue to support their efforts, including the fee hikes.

We will see the first model runs at the next NOF meeting in Olympia on the 15th, at which time we will have a better view of what fisheries will fit within the impact limits and how things really look.

Hope this helps keep everybody informed - I'll try to answer questions for folks if I can..

Tom Drews
Salmon Sportfishing Advisory Group Member