6+ Inches of Snow for Puget Sound Areas

[kuttkilla]

NOAA is expecting 6+ inches of snow in the puget-sound region:

From NOAA's 9:00 AM Discussion...La Nina continues...cold and wet...and this is for the westside of the cascades...

The full discussion can be found here: this is going to be something worth watching:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/disc_report.html

One person died on HWY18 this morning...(my heart goes out to your family...)

...POSSIBLE HEAVY LOWLAND SNOW EVENT TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY....

...THIS WILL LIKELY SHADOW THE METRO CORRIDOR
FROM NEAR OLYMPIA NORTHWARD INITIALLY...BUT WILL NOT HINDER PRECIP
FROM DEVELOPING ON THE COAST...SW INTERIOR...AND HOOD CANAL.
VERTICAL MOTION/MOISTURE FIELDS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON THE
MODELS...RESULTING IN THE 3 TO 6+ INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
FORECASTED BY THE MM5 MODEL. THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN WINDS DOWN IN THESE AREAS FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL LIKELY REFRESH THE WATCH STATEMENT TO MOVE UP THE
TIMING... :pale:

These two photos were snatched off wsdot.wa.gov and show the difference between Tiger Mountain and Quincy, WA.

[kevinb]

This is completly insane. Well from the looks of it,no bass,muskie or trout this weekend. Maybe we all should go ice fishing.

[kuttkilla]

This is completly insane. Well from the looks of it,no bass,muskie or trout this weekend. Maybe we all should go ice fishing.

I agree It was just last weekend that JT26 and fishingmachine did so well out at Beaver Lake...now areas out there are going to be frozen...when are the bass going to spawn this year...July?? lol

[kevinb]

This is completly insane. Well from the looks of it,no bass,muskie or trout this weekend. Maybe we all should go ice fishing.

I agree It was just last weekend that JT26 and fishingmachine did so well out at Beaver Lake...now areas out there are going to be frozen...when are the bass going to spawn this year...July?? lol

Yeah,Monday I fished Tapps, got 2 smallies. Hung'n the shoreline. I think there gone now.

[gpc]

There was a 1/2 inch on my truck last night (Sea Tac). I was hoping the weather would start warming up, but nope. I am going out to potholes next weekend, and its still dropping down to 29 degreese at night over there.

[Coastfishin]

Man, this is bad. I'm going to put the boat away for a while

Severe Weather Alert

Winter Storm Watch


/O.EXT.KSEW.WS.A.0006.080328T0600Z- 080328T2300Z/ HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-CENTRAL COAST- 942 AM PDT THU MAR 27 2008
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS LATE EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING OVER GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY AND THE HOOD CANAL AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY.

IN THE HOOD CANAL AREA...3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY NOON ON FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR NORTHWEST OF SHELTON AND ABOVE ABOUT 200 FEET OF ELEVATION.

IN GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...HEAVIEST FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 200 FEET. ABERDEEN... HOQUIAM AND THE BEACHES WILL SEE THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS...BUT SOME ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST OF HIGHWAY 101.

THE SYSTEM IS STILL DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND SOME UNCERTAINTY OF AMOUNTS AND TIMING EXISTS. CHECK BACK LATER TODAY FOR THE LATEST UPDATE TO THIS POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT.

[kuttkilla]

Man, this is bad. I'm going to put the boat away for a while

Severe Weather Alert

Winter Storm Watch


/O.EXT.KSEW.WS.A.0006.080328T0600Z- 080328T2300Z/ HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-CENTRAL COAST- 942 AM PDT THU MAR 27 2008
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS LATE EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING OVER GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY AND THE HOOD CANAL AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY.

IN THE HOOD CANAL AREA...3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BY NOON ON FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR NORTHWEST OF SHELTON AND ABOVE ABOUT 200 FEET OF ELEVATION.

IN GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...HEAVIEST FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 200 FEET. ABERDEEN... HOQUIAM AND THE BEACHES WILL SEE THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS...BUT SOME ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST OF HIGHWAY 101.

THE SYSTEM IS STILL DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND SOME UNCERTAINTY OF AMOUNTS AND TIMING EXISTS. CHECK BACK LATER TODAY FOR THE LATEST UPDATE TO THIS POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT.

It hasn't happened yet, but this is what I was concerned about...when systems develop offshore sometimes they can track different than forecasted and either bring warmer air and windier weather, or suck in colder air and then produce snow...looks like wet-bulb cooling will be in full force with good strong upper level dynamics to support heavy snowfall...it's what I feared...hopefully next week we'll get back to the normal high of 56F for this time of year! Wow!

[Coastfishin]

Well now I'm going to bring my Dog in the house. It just started to thunder. This is wierd!!!!!!!

[kuttkilla]

Well now I'm going to bring my Dog in the house. It just started to thunder. This is wierd!!!!!!!

Thunder Snow!!!???!!!! :bounce:

[kevinb]

Well now I'm going to bring my Dog in the house. It just started to thunder. This is wierd!!!!!!!

Thunder Snow!!!???!!!! :bounce:

I think I've heard this before,it was refered as "End of Days":-$

[Coastfishin]

This is what is happening out there right now, thunder, hail, and some wind.
What next? A tornado?

[kevinb]

Its snowing in p-town already. snows covering the camaros,tractors and pathways to methlabs.

[kuttkilla]

Check out Komotv's Scott Sistek's weather blog for our area...it's sweet...and this guy is awesome! He breaks down the forecast and is very comprehendible when reading...

http://www.komotv.com/weather

From Scott Sistek:

Updated Thursday 10:35 a.m.

Helllloooo Alaska!

It's looking more and more like Wednesday's snow in some spots is just Round 1, as more snow is in the forecast for several areas late tonight into Friday. A WINTER STORM WATCH is even in effect for some spots of Southwestern Washington for as much as 3-7" of snow.

So, what's going on? A very cool air mass is settling in from the Gulf of Alaska. In fact, the reading from the weather balloon from Forks this morning was the coldest reading in the upper atmosphere this entire winter (and spring), beating the Jan. 28 reading by 0.8 degrees C. (For weather geeks: The reading at 500 mb (17,600 feet today) was -39.3 degrees C, beating the previous low of -38.5 degrees on Jan. 28.)

On top of that very cold air, we have an unstable air mass to touch off some showers today, and then a mish-mash of a big area of low pressure coming in to our south, possibly merging with another disturbance dropping down from the northwest Thursday night into Friday. Mother Nature might as well make us forecast blindfolded while hopping on one leg.

As you might imagine, this could paint all sorts of snow scenarios as we've got terrain, water, convergence zones, and rain shadows all in play that could determine whether you get squat or 6" of snow. So here we go with the forecast. We'll see how well I can type while hopping.

TODAY:

Generally speaking, snow levels are around 300-500 feet, but the air mass is set up that any kind of decent intensity in a passing shower could temporarily lower the snow level down to the sea level. That's what was happening Wednesday evening, and will be the case through perhaps Saturday morning.

As for weather, we still have a mix of showers and sun breaks as a cool, unstable air mass is in place. The showers will be random and hit-and-miss in nature, so plenty of dry time in between. Best chance for these showers to be snow is above 300 feet, so that means spots as low as the Seattle hilltops could see a little slush here and there.

No real accumulations are expected where it does snow, except for perhaps a brief dusting to half-inch if a shower sticks around for a little while.

It should gradually become more difficult to snow as we get into the afternoon and temperatures warm into the low-mid 40s.

THURSDAY NIGHT:

This when the fun begins as a big area of low pressure is expected to develop and move into the area.

A WINTER STORM WATCH is in effect for the Hood Canal area, Mason County, and Grays Harbor County.

Snow there is expected to develop late Thursday evening over Grays Harbor County and the Hood Canal area by midnight. As much as 3-7" of snow could fall in the Hood Canal and Shelton area through morning and 2-5" in Grays Harbor County.

The greatest accumulations will be away from the ocean and above 200 feet, but the National Weather Service says accumulations are expected even in Hoquiam/Aberdeen area, and snow is expected to impact Highway 101.

The greater Olympia/Thurston County area as well as the rest of Southwestern Washington not specifically mentioned above is also expected to see some snow tonight, but in lesser amounts -- maybe 1-3" although that could change this afternoon. Stay tuned.

For the rest of us, Thursday night before, say, 3 a.m. will just see a few isolated rain/snow showers, but snow chances increase for most other areas as we get toward sunrise Friday, which I'll group below:

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING:

* Southwest Interior: Here the snow should be tapering off and you'll be left with just a few lingering showers.

* Greater Seattle/Tacoma/Everett Metro: You'll likely get a bit of a mountain-shadowing effect with east wind coming off the Cascades for a little while very early Friday morning keeping this area generally dry, but that shadow will fizzle as the low moves into the area by sunrise and the east wind shifts. Thus, snow could develop even in the metro area around morning commute time.

The best chance of snow here is away from water and above 200-300 feet. Accumulations could potentially (not a slam dunk, but potentially) reach 0-1" near the water, and Trace-2" in the spots away from the water, and perhaps 1-3" on the hilltops and higher foothill areas and over on the Kitsap Peninsula, which will likely get some leftovers from the Hood Canal snow too. There are no advisories issued yet, but there could be later this afternoon.

* Northern Olympic Peninsula (Both Clallam and Jefferson County -- ocean to Sound) could get 1-3" late Thursday night and into Friday morning -- higher amounts away from water and above 300 feet.

* Spots north of Everett in the I-5 corridor and Islands: You're not working with quite as much moisture, but could still see 0-2" of snow Friday morning, especially away from water and (say it with me) above 300 feet.

Is that everyone? OK, let's move on to what happens once the low passes through midday:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING

Snow should taper off to showers all areas and begin to taper off. *However*, forecasting models show favorable conditions for a Puget Sound Convergence Zone to develop (don't they always seem to?)

This could bring an additional round of steady snow to the area between Northgate and Everett through Friday evening and into Friday night (and possibly early Saturday morning).

Timing of when the zone will form and how long the zone might last is difficult to say, but there could be, say, a period of snow for 4-5 hours in that narrow band that could drop 1-3" of snow, especially near I-5 where Lynnwood, South Everett, Mukilteo and Mill Creek are all right around 500 feet.

Highs will try to reach the low-mid 40s. We'll see.

FRIDAY NIGHT:

Aside form the Zone still roaming around, the rest of us should be tapering off to just isolated rain/snow showers with the usual stipulation of better chance of snow above 300 feet and way from water. No real accumulations expected here. With clearing skies, this could present some plunging temperatures and icy road concerns Saturday morning.

SATURDAY:

The moisture starts to move away and we're just left with a day sort of like today -- just isolated rain/snow showers and no significant accumulations. Highs will generally be in the mid 40s.

HOW COME IT SNOWS LOWER THAN THE GENERAL SNOW LEVEL?

So I've just finished writing about how snow levels are generally 500-1,000 feet. So then, how is it possible to still snow near sea level?

If the intensity of a passing shower is strong enough, it can artificially lower the snow level a few hundred feet through a process called evaporative cooling.

When snow first begins to fall into drier air, that snow will evaporate. But the process of evaporation takes energy. Sapping energy from the air causes it to cool, dropping its temperature. So as this process churns away, the temperature will drop, but the humidity will rise as you add more evaporated moisture to the air content. The drier the air is at the beginning, the farther the temperature can fall during this process. (This is also known as "wet bulb cooling".)

But wet bulb cooling needs some help, and that brings up the second factor: precipitation intensity. We need to have a decent amount of oompf in the precipitation to get that cooling engine going. If it's a really light snow or flurries, it won't evaporate as much or as quickly, which means this cooling engine won't be very efficient and the temperature may not drop as much.

On the other hand, if you get a really heavy snow shower, that can really get that evaporation going and drop the temperature quite a bit. This is typically how snows in the Convergence Zone work when it snows in Everett/L

[kuttkilla]

This is what is happening out there right now, thunder, hail, and some wind.
What next? A tornado?

If that hails gets 1/4 to 1/3" in diameter I'd pull that truck in...you never know...tornados are possible in this area...although very rare..

[Coastfishin]

I saw a torando hit in Ocean Shores about ten years ago. I pulled a water spout about 250' out of the lake. The weather service said it wasn't a tornado. They called it a micro-burst

[Gringo Pescador]

snows covering the camaros,tractors and pathways to methlabs.

Sounds like a Christmas Card Picture

[kevinb]

snows covering the camaros,tractors and pathways to methlabs.

Sounds like a Christmas Card Picture

Thats what I was thinking too.
How's it up there?

[Gringo Pescador]

snows covering the camaros,tractors and pathways to methlabs.

Sounds like a Christmas Card Picture

Thats what I was thinking too.
How's it up there?

I am in Bellevue/Eastgate right now - windy, COLD, but dry here right now.
I live up on the edge of the convergence zone - never know what we are going to get there..

[gpc]

about a half hour ago its went from no snow to a down pour of snow. Went and let the dogs in by the time I sat back down the snow stopped, and the sun came out

[fishnislife]

I just want to go fishing. I was out earlier and it sucked. Blowing like crazy and cold. Man, bring on the spring.




fishnislife